Thursday, September 17, 2015

A $2 trillion bet against Fed raising rates this week

Casino economy vs. physical economy, hazard wins every time. Do not wonder the common sense got lost in the process and the madmen rule.


With investors fixated on Thursday’s key Federal Reserve FOMC meeting announcement and the prospect of the first interest-rate hike since the Great Recession, the message from a group of CFOs representing more than $2 trillion in market cap is in line with much of the market: Don’t hold your breath.
The majority CFO view has moved from betting on a September rate hike when last polled in May to a majority view in the August poll that the first rate hike gets backed up to 2016. Less than a quarter of CNBC Global CFO Council members polled believe the Fed will raise interest rates after its meeting on Thursday (compared to 47 percent in May’s poll). In the previous CFO poll, only 16 percent of CFOs were betting on the Fed delaying action until 2016.
Wall Street doesn’t think the Fed will announce a rate hike this week, either. The CME FedWatch shows that traders put the probability at only 25 percent, down from 40 percent last month.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/15/a-2-trillion-bet-against-fed-rate-hike.html

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